Underwater Drones

Here's an interesting report on one unexplored aspect drone warfare's future:

Think of them as sleeper cells that go dormant for years, waiting for the signal that will send them into action. 

This is the high-tech version: unmanned drones that the government plans to plant on the ocean floor, ready to speed to the surface — and beyond — for surveillance, search-and-rescue and other operational support.
. . . 

The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency is funding the construction of deep-sea capsules containing dormant aerial drones. DARPA documents say the agency is also willing to consider other types of unmanned vehicles that travel on the water but accomplish the same mission, though there are no current plans to arm any of them, according to a DARPA statement. The call for proposals made public earlier this year offers scant details, relying on the imagination of interested inventors.

This story focuses on drones that are stored on the seabed that fly to and above the surface when needed.  The Navy is also working on developing drones and drone carriers that function underwater.

The story reminded me of an article I read a while back on the future of armed conflict. The article is Eric Jensen's, The Future of Armed Conflict: Ostriches, Butterflies, and Nanobots, and is forthcoming in Volume 35 of the Michigan Journal of International Law. It is available on SSRN here. The article surveys how conflicts in the future will unfold, how developing technology will expand the battlefield, and how the law of armed conflict must adapt to developments.

Jensen notes the relevance of the seabed as a platform for future conflicts:

Currently the seabed and even non-surface waters have seen very little armed conflict. Submarine vessels have engaged surface vessels but there has been almost no conflict between submarines and none from the seabed. This is likely to change dramatically with technological improvements. For example, China has developed submersibles that can reach 99.8 percent of world’s seabed. As more and more underwater vehicles become unmanned, the need for breathable air dissipates. Underwater drones will eventually become armed and underwater engagements will quickly follow. 

Similarly, the seabed will quickly become militarized, once the need for air is erased. Not only will sensors be used to track surface and subsurface traffic, but armaments will soon follow and the seabed will become another area where States will employ weapons systems. [internal footnotes omitted]

If the military ends up moving forward with the drone development plans described in the first news article, the seabed may indeed become as relevant as Jensen argues.  I still, however, have some trouble accepting all of his predictions on where battles will be fought in the future:

Similar to the seabed, the ability to place weapons systems under ground and employ them effectively against an enemy is beginning to develop. Not only will underground weapons attack surface targets, but they will also be used to create surface effects through underground explosions and other means of manipulation. This will include the creation of earthquakes, tsunamis, and other surface effects that will severely affect an enemy. This is currently an unweaponized portion of the earth, but it will not remain so in the future. [internal footnotes omitted]

Or maybe I'm just too scared to consider this to be a possibility.